A developing El Niño, warm Atlantic waters, and updated NHC forecast tools are shaping expectations for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Here's what the leading forecasters are saying — and why you shouldn't let a "below average" prediction lower your guard.
The Big Picture: El Niño Takes Center Stage
The dominant factor shaping the 2026 hurricane season forecast is the expected development of El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. After a fading La Niña through early 2026, climate models are showing a transition to El Niño by mid-summer, with some models suggesting it could become a strong or even very strong event by late summer and early fall.
NOAA has issued an El Niño Watch, noting that there is approximately a 62 percent chance El Niño will develop between June and August. A large pool of warm water beneath the surface of the Pacific is shifting eastward — a classic precursor to El Niño formation.
What El Niño Means for Hurricanes
In most years, El Niño acts as a suppressor of Atlantic hurricane activity. It does this primarily by increasing vertical wind shear over the Atlantic basin — stronger upper-level winds that can tear apart developing tropical storms before they can organize into hurricanes. El Niño also tends to promote more stable atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic, further limiting storm development.
Since the beginning of the satellite era in the 1960s, El Niño years have averaged roughly 10 named storms and 5 hurricanes — well below the historical average of 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes.
However, El Niño does not eliminate the threat. The 2023 season occurred during El Niño conditions and produced 20 named storms — far above average — because Atlantic sea surface temperatures were at record highs. The lesson: El Niño is one factor among many.
What the Forecasters Say
AccuWeather
AccuWeather is predicting 11 to 16 named storms, including 4 to 7 hurricanes and 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). They expect 3 to 5 direct impacts on the United States throughout the season. AccuWeather notes that while El Niño should help limit overall storm counts, warm Atlantic waters could partially offset the suppressive effect.
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)
TSR released their initial forecast in December 2025, calling for a near-normal season with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, with an ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) index of 125 units — close to the 30-year average. TSR emphasized historically low confidence in this early forecast.
Colorado State University (CSU)
CSU, which has issued seasonal forecasts since 1984, typically releases updated predictions in April and June. Their forecast will incorporate the latest data on Pacific Ocean conditions and Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
Factors Beyond El Niño
Several other variables will influence how the 2026 season plays out.
Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Waters across the Atlantic are expected to remain warm throughout 2026, though likely not at the record-shattering levels seen in 2023. Warm water provides the fuel hurricanes need to develop and intensify. If temperatures are higher than expected, storm activity could outpace what El Niño alone would suggest.
Bermuda High positioning. AccuWeather forecasters expect the Bermuda High — a semi-permanent high-pressure system in the Atlantic that steers hurricane tracks — may sit farther south and east again this year, similar to the 2025 season. This setup can cause more storms to curve away from the U.S. coast, particularly in the western Atlantic.
Saharan dust. Dust plumes from the Sahara Desert can suppress tropical development in the Atlantic's main development region. Forecasters will monitor dust activity throughout the season, as heavy dust years tend to produce fewer storms.
Tropical waves from Africa. The majority of the season's strongest hurricanes originate from tropical waves moving off the African coast. The frequency and strength of these waves will play a significant role in how many storms develop during peak season (August through October).
The NHC's New Forecast Tools
For the 2026 season, the National Hurricane Center has announced improvements to how it forecasts and communicates hurricane threats. These updates include refinements to the forecast cone graphic, aimed at better conveying the full range of a storm's potential impacts beyond just the track of its center.
These changes reflect lessons learned from recent seasons, where the cone was sometimes misinterpreted by the public. People outside the cone's boundaries often assumed they were safe, only to be hit by storm surge, rainfall, or tornado impacts that extended well beyond the projected track.
The Most Important Number Is One
Here's the truth that every forecaster will tell you: seasonal predictions describe the overall level of activity across the entire Atlantic basin. They don't tell you whether your town will be hit.
It only takes one storm. The 1992 season produced just six named storms — the fewest in years — and one of them was Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 catastrophe that caused $60.5 billion in damage. The 2026 forecast may call for a near-average or below-average season, but a single well-aimed hurricane striking a major metropolitan area would make the season's total storm count irrelevant.
Prepare as if a hurricane will hit your area. If the season is quiet, you've lost nothing. If it isn't, you might save everything.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many hurricanes are predicted for 2026?
AccuWeather forecasts 4 to 7 hurricanes and 2 to 4 major hurricanes. TSR projects 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. These numbers will be updated as the season approaches.
Will El Niño make the 2026 hurricane season less active?
El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear, but it doesn't eliminate the risk. The 2023 season was active despite El Niño because of record-warm Atlantic waters.
When is peak hurricane season?
The statistical peak of hurricane season is September 10, with the most active period running from mid-August through mid-October. However, dangerous storms can form in any month from June through November.
How many storms are expected to hit the U.S. in 2026?
AccuWeather forecasts 3 to 5 direct impacts on the United States. A direct impact can include a storm that doesn't make landfall but still causes significant storm surge, waves, or coastal erosion.