SEASON FORECASTS
★ FEATURED
2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: What to Expect
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1. Early forecasts from TSR, CSU, and NOAA point to …
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SEASON EDUCATION HUB
UNDERSTAND THE HURRICANE SEASON
From how tropical storms form to reading NHC forecast discussions — 19 science and education articles to help you understand what's happening in the tropics and why it matters.
June 1 – Nov 30
Season Dates
September
Peak Month
17–21 named storms
2026 Forecast
3 per season
Avg Major Hurricanes
14 per season
Named Storms Avg
3 per season
Cat 3+ Avg
ATLANTIC SEASON ACTIVITY CALENDAR
May
10%
Pre-Season
May — Pre-Season
Season begins June 1. Tropical disturbances rare but possible.
Season begins June 1. Tropical disturbances rare but possible.
Jun
25%
Early Season
Jun — Early Season
Named storms possible. Gulf and Caribbean begin warming.
Named storms possible. Gulf and Caribbean begin warming.
Jul
45%
Building
Jul — Building
Activity increases. Cape Verde season opens.
Activity increases. Cape Verde season opens.
Aug
80%
Peak Ramp-Up
Aug — Peak Ramp-Up
Major hurricane risk rises sharply. SSTs peak.
Major hurricane risk rises sharply. SSTs peak.
Sep
100%
Peak Season
Sep — Peak Season
Most active month. Highest probability of major landfalling storms.
Most active month. Highest probability of major landfalling storms.
Oct
75%
Active
Oct — Active
Still very active. Late-season storms can be intense.
Still very active. Late-season storms can be intense.
Nov
30%
Winding Down
Nov — Winding Down
Activity decreasing. Late-season storms still possible.
Activity decreasing. Late-season storms still possible.
Dec
8%
Off-Season
Dec — Off-Season
Season ends Nov 30. Rare post-season activity possible.
Season ends Nov 30. Rare post-season activity possible.
Activity index based on historical NHC data 1851–2025. Peak activity: August 20 – October 10.Read the full month-by-month guide →
SEASON FORECASTS
Official and expert outlooks for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
SEASON FORECASTS
2026 Hurricane Season Forecast: What Experts Are Predicting
AccuWeather predicts 11-16 named storms for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season as El Niño develops. Here's wha…
5 min readREAD
SEASON FORECASTS
El Niño and the 2026 Hurricane Season: What It Means for Your Safety
A developing El Niño could suppress the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season — but it doesn't eliminate the risk. Le…
4 min readREAD
SEASON FORECASTS
Hurricane Names 2026: The Complete List and What to Know
The official 2026 Atlantic hurricane names are Arthur through Wilfred. See the complete list, learn how naming…
4 min readREAD
STORM SCIENCE
How hurricanes form, intensify, and impact coastlines — explained clearly.
SCIENCE
Hurricane Categories Explained: What the Saffir-Simpson Scale Really Means
The Saffir-Simpson scale rates hurricanes from Category 1 to 5 based on wind speed — but it doesn't measure th…
4 min readREAD
SCIENCE
Storm Surge: The #1 Hurricane Killer Most People Don't Understand
Storm surge kills more people in hurricanes than any other factor, yet most coastal residents don't fully unde…
4 min readREAD
SCIENCE
The Difference Between Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones Explained
Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones are the same storm — just named differently by region. Learn why, how they …
5 min readREAD
SCIENCE
Understanding Hurricane Forecasting: How Meteorologists Predict the Path
From Columbus reading clouds to AI-powered ensemble models, hurricane forecasting has transformed. Learn how t…
5 min readREAD
SCIENCE
Hurricane Camille to Hurricane Helene: How Storm Surge Science Has Evolved
From Camille's unmeasured 1969 fury to Helene's 2024 inland devastation, storm surge forecasting has been tran…
6 min readREAD
What Is the Cone of Uncertainty? (And What It Doesn't Tell You)
The cone of uncertainty is the most recognized — and most misunderstood — graphic in hurricane forecasting. He…
6 min readREAD
Rapid Intensification: The Hurricane Phenomenon That Kills Without Warning
In 2022, Hurricane Ian was a Category 2 storm with winds of 110 mph as it approached southwest Florida. Twenty…
7 min readREAD
How Does a Hurricane Form? A Step-by-Step Guide
A fully developed hurricane is one of the most powerful events in Earth's atmosphere — a heat engine hundreds …
6 min readREAD
Hurricane Wind Radii Explained: Why Storm Size Matters as Much as Category
Two Category 3 hurricanes. Same maximum wind speed. One spans 80 miles from its center to its outermost tropic…
5 min readREAD
SCIENCE
The Eyewall Replacement Cycle: Why Hurricanes Sometimes Weaken Before Getting Worse
The eyewall replacement cycle causes major hurricanes to briefly weaken, then re-intensify with a larger, more…
5 min readREAD
SCIENCE
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): The Number That Defines a Hurricane Season
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) measures total hurricane season activity — not just storm count. Here's what …
5 min readREAD
SCIENCE
How to Read the NHC Forecast Discussion Like a Meteorologist
The NHC Forecast Discussion is the most detailed hurricane forecast product available to the public. Learn how…
7 min readREAD
SEASON EDUCATION
Guides on reading NHC products, understanding models, and seasonal patterns.
EDUCATION
★ FEATURED
How to Read Spaghetti Models Like a Meteorologist
Spaghetti models are one of the most misunderstood tools in hurricane forecasting. They are not individual for…
9 min readREAD
RESEARCH & ANALYSIS
The Economic Impact of Hurricanes on Coastal Communities
Hurricanes are the costliest natural disaster in American history. The economic damage extends far beyond brok…
9 min readREAD
SEASON EDUCATION
Hurricane Season Month by Month: What to Watch From May Through November
Hurricane season runs June through November, but activity varies dramatically by month. Here's what each month…
6 min readREAD
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