Real-time model tracks from NHC ATCF data. Toggle models to compare projected paths.
Each line is a different model's forecast. Tight clustering = agreement. Wide spread = high uncertainty. Click any forecast dot to see wind speed, pressure, and position at that hour. Always follow the official NHC forecast (white line) for evacuation decisions.
Source: NHC Track and Intensity Models (NOAA)· Data: ATCF FTP Server
| Model | Full Name | Organization | Type | ATCF Codes |
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Spaghetti models (also called spaghetti plots) show multiple computer forecast model tracks for a tropical cyclone on a single map. Each colored line represents a different model's prediction of where the storm will go. When shown together, the individual model tracks resemble strands of spaghetti — hence the name.
This page pulls real-time data from the NHC's ATCF (Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting) system — the same data source used by professional meteorologists. Models include the GFS (American), ECMWF (European), CMC (Canadian), UKMET (British), HWRF and HMON (hurricane-specific), NAVGEM (Navy), and consensus models like TVCN.
Beyond individual model tracks, this page visualizes ensemble spread — the range of possible outcomes from running the same model with slightly different initial conditions. The GFS runs 30 ensemble members, ECMWF runs 50, and UKMET runs 35. When the ensemble fan is narrow, models are confident in the track. When it spreads wide, the atmosphere is chaotic and multiple outcomes are possible.
The accuracy tab shows how each model performs at different forecast lead times (24h, 48h, 72h, 96h, 120h). Track error is measured in nautical miles — the distance between where the model predicted the storm center and where it actually went. The NHC Official Forecast consistently outperforms individual models because it combines computer guidance with human expertise. Always follow the official NHC forecast (white line) for evacuation planning.